La Junta Directiva del Banco de la República decidió por mayoría mantener inalterada la tasa de interés de política monetaria en 9,5%.
Cuatro directores votaron a favor de esta decisión y tres por una reducción de 50 pbs. En su discusión de política, la Junta Directiva tuvo en cuenta varios elementos.
Luego de tres meses de permanecer estable en 5,2%, la inflación anual en febrero tuvo un ligero incremento a 5,3%. Los aumentos más importantes se presentaron en los precios de los alimentos procesados y de algunos regulados como gas y transporte. La inflación sin alimentos ni regulados continuó reduciéndose y pasó de 5,0% a 4,9%.
Las expectativas de inflación a corto plazo provenientes del mercado de deuda disminuyeron, en tanto que aquellas obtenidas de las encuestas aumentaron. Las dos fuentes de información muestran expectativas de inflación por encima de la meta de 3% en horizontes de uno y dos años.
Los riesgos de presiones inflacionarias persisten asociados con los retos fiscales y la incertidumbre en el frente externo.
Después de registrarse un crecimiento anual del PIB de 2,4% en el cuarto trimestre de 2024, el Indicador de Seguimiento a la Economía (ISE) para enero arrojó una variación anual de 2,5%. Datos de alta frecuencia sugieren que la demanda interna habría seguido fortaleciéndose en el primer trimestre favorecida por el buen comportamiento del consumo privado y de la inversión. En línea con lo anterior, el equipo técnico aumentó su pronóstico de crecimiento económico para 2025 del 2,6% al 2,8%.
El mercado laboral continúa mostrando buenos registros en términos de incrementos de la tasa de ocupación y caídas de la tasa de desempleo.
Se prevé que las condiciones financieras externas se mantengan restrictivas en un entorno de una lenta normalización de la política monetaria en los Estados Unidos. Lo anterior en un contexto de incertidumbre sobre los efectos de las políticas migratoria y comercial de ese país y sus consecuencias sobre la economía global.
La decisión de no modificar la tasa de interés mantiene una postura cautelosa de la política monetaria a la espera de allegar nueva información en los próximos meses que permita contar con mayores elementos de juicio para determinar la posibilidad de nuevos recortes en la tasa de interés. Esta decisión mantiene el compromiso de la Junta con la convergencia de la inflación a la meta en un contexto de recuperación del crecimiento económico.
- Con información del Banco de la República
45 Comments
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